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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/13 10:56

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn is 8 to 9 cents lower, soybeans are 13 to 14 cents lower, and wheat is 
2 to 5 cents lower.

David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 410 points. The dollar index 
is 34 points lower. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are narrowly 
mixed. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are 
firmer with gold up $6.60.


   Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade seeing follow-through 
selling from Friday on a better weather forecast along with little other 
friendly news. The forecast has better rains for many in it, but remains warm. 
The ethanol margins have narrowed a bit but remain positive with potential OPEC 
production increases on deck. Weekly crop progress should show steady to 
slightly lower conditions with silking progress near average. Weekly export 
inspections were 902,623 metric tons. On the September contract, support is the 
lower Bollinger Band at $3.19 after we gapped below the 20-day at $3.36 


   Soybean trade is 12 to 14 cents lower at midday with spillover pressure from 
corn, and the weather forecast. Meal is 5.50 to 6.50 lower and oil is 15 to 25 
points lower. The ral remains at the midpoint of the recent range vs. the 
dollar. Crush margins have seen little change in recent days. Weekly export 
inspections remain soft at 483,331 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should 
show steady conditions with average progress on blooming and setting pods. The 
August soybean chart resistance is the $9.03 fresh high, with support the 
20-day at $8.79 which we are testing at midday.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday in fairly quiet trade compared 
to the row crops with harvest pressure in the U.S. likely to keep fading. The 
ruble remains in the recent range vs. the dollar with a focus on euro and Black 
Sea yields this week. Kansas City is at a 79-cent discount to Chicago with 
spreads sharply wider the past three days, while Minneapolis is back to a 6 
cent discount. Weekly crop progress should show  winter wheat harvest near two 
thirds complete, with spring wheat conditions steady and heading closing in on 
normal. Weekly export inspections were good at 624,211 metric tons.  The 
September Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.43, with the upper 
Bollinger Band at $4.58 the next round up.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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